Our Staff's 6 Best Bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Our Staff’s 6 Best Bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Click arrow to expand 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson odds via BetMGM

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Justin Thomas +1200
Sam Burns +2000
Dustin Johnson +2200
Jordan Spieth +2200
Will Zalatoris +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Talor Gooch +4000
Jhonattan Vegas +4000
Aaron Wise +5000
Adam Hadwin +5000
Cameron Champ +5000
Davis Riley +5000
Jason Day +5000
Jason Kokrak +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Seamus Power +5000
Alex Noren +6600
Lanto Griffin +6600
Mito Pereira +6600
Patton Kizzire +6600
Adam Scott +6600
Bubba Watson +6600
Marc Leishman +6600
Sebastian Munoz +6600
Sepp Straka +6600
Si Woo Kim +6600
K.H. Lee +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Matthew Wolff +8000
Keith Mitchell +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Luke List +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
C.T. Pan +10000
Charles Howell III +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
David Lipsky +10000
J.J. Spaun +10000
Kurt Kitayama +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Scott Stallings +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Aaron Rai +12500
Brandon Wu +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Ian Poulter +12500
Joohyung Kim +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Ryan Palmer +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Stephan Jaeger +12500
Branden Grace +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Lee Westwood +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
James Hahn +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Austin Smotherman +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Doc Redman +20000
Hank Lebioda +20000
Martin Laird +20000
Pat Perez +20000
Tyler Duncan +20000
Vince Whaley +20000
Ryan Armour +20000
Mark Hubbard +20000
Adam Schenk +25000
Adam Svensson +25000
Andrew Novak +25000
Beau Hossler +25000
Brandt Snedeker +25000
Brice Garnett +25000
Charl Schwartzel +25000
Francesco Molinari +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
Hudson Swafford +25000
John Huh +25000
Joseph Bramlett +25000
Justin Lower +25000
Kramer Hickok +25000
Luke Donald +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Rory Sabbatini +25000
Taylor Moore +25000
Chase Seiffert +25000
Satoshi Kodaira +25000
Andrew Putnam +30000
Charley Hoffman +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Matt Wallace +30000
Michael Thompson +30000
Peter Uihlein +30000
Sam Ryder +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Shaun Norris +30000
Ben Kohles +35000
Brandon Hagy +35000
Callum Tarren +35000
Mac Meissner +35000
Michael Gligic +35000
Roger Sloan +35000
Scott Gutschewski +35000
Wesley Bryan +35000
Cameron Percy +40000
Curtis Thompson +40000
Dylan Wu +40000
Hayden Buckley +40000
Kelly Kraft +40000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +40000
Paul Barjon +40000
Richy Werenski +40000
Ryan Brehm +40000
Vaughn Taylor +40000
Bill Haas +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
David Skinns +50000
Henrik Norlander +50000
James Hart du Preez +50000
Jared Wolfe +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Patrick Flavin +50000
Seth Reeves +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Sung Kang +50000
Austin Cook +75000
Brett Drewitt +75000
Jim Herman +75000
Joshua Creel +75000
Kyle Wilshire +75000
Cooper Dossey +100000
J.J. Killeen +100000
John Murphy +100000
Jonas Blixt +100000
Justin Leonard +100000
Andrew Loupe +100000
Conrad Shindler +100000
Jim Knous +100000

We’re on the road to Southern Hills, and the last stop is just north of Dallas.

With the PGA Championship on the horizon, a strong field is at TPC Craig Ranch this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite, followed by Justin Thomas and a plethora of proven PGA TOUR winners.

Last year, K.H. Lee won the first edition of this tournament that was played on this course at a staggering 25-under. There were multiple players at 20-under or better, and conditions look ripe for another birdie-fest this week.

Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board and found its favorite picks for this week before heading north into Oklahoma for golf’s second major of 2022. Check out their favorite picks below.

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets

Dustin Johnson — Top 5 (+400)

Jason Sobel: This remains one of my favorite current statistics, because it says a lot about us and how we look at these things and how we can shape them to fit our personal narratives: Since his most recent global victory last February, Johnson doesn’t own a single top-five finish in a stroke-play event. (He did reach the semifinals of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, resulting in a solo fourth-place result.) Then again, in 25 stroke-play starts since that win, he does own eight top-10s and 13 top-25s.

What that tells us is that DJ hasn’t seriously contended on the back nine of a Sunday afternoon, but he’s hardly playing poor golf, finishing in that top-25 range in half of his appearances.

With all of that in mind, I’ll back Johnson to break one of those streaks, finally posting a top-five finish this week. While it’s not very relevant, as he hasn’t played this tourney in a half-decade and hasn’t competed on this course, Johnson does own seven consecutive top-20s at this one, though only one top-five, way back in 2009.

On a track where he can bash it and make birdies in bunches, this should be the perfect formula for getting back into serious contention. I don’t mind an outright play on DJ, but if we’re talking best bets, I’ll stick with a top-five in his first post-nuptials start.

Marc Leishman +6600

Matt Vincenzi: In the past, I’ve written about golfers who offer some tremendous value on the betting board due to what I call a “missed cut discount.” Marc Leishman fits that description perfectly this week.

Although Leishman missed the cut at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, I didn’t see any major cause for concern. Despite missing the cut, Leishman gained 3.1 strokes on approach in two rounds. He bladed a bunker shot into the water which is most definitely an anomaly but cost him three strokes and ultimately, the cut.

Leishman now heads to a course that should be a much better fit for him than TPC Potomac was. When the 38-year-old gets into trouble, it usually is due to an errant driver. Missing the fairway at TPC Potomac was incredibly penal, and that won’t be the case at TPC Craig Ranch. It also will be much harder to miss the fairways considering they are some of the widest on TOUR.

Throughout his career, the Aussie has played some of his best golf in the state of Texas. He was the runner up at this event (AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest) back in 2018, and finished 21st at this course last season. Additionally, back in 2008, Leishman won a Nationwide Tour event (WNB Golf Classic) by 11 strokes which took place in Midland. Something about Texas golf undoubtedly resonates with him.

Leishman is a golfer I love going to on outright bets because of the win equity he offers. He has six PGA TOUR wins, so I am confident he will be able to convert a good performance into a win if given the opportunity. I expect the winning score to eclipse 20-under this week, and three of Leishman’s six TOUR victories have come at that score or better. The best number for the Aussie is on BetMGM, as of Tuesday night.

Davis Riley +6500

Joshua Perry: I obviously bet him pretty much every week, but he’s worthy of a write up this time. He’s finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has ties to the Dallas area, so it should be a comfortable event. The ball striking hasn’t always been great in those top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that’s what whoever wins this thing will need.

Keith Mitchell +8000

Derek Farnsworth: I’m having a hard time not backing up the Brinks Truck and placing every wager possible on Mitchell this week. My plan is to bet him outright and then sprinkle in some top 10, top 20, and even make the cut bets.

TPC Craig Ranch is a driver-heavy golf course with generous fairways. It features four par fives and measures nearly 7,500 yards. It certainly sets up well for good drivers of the ball and no golfer in the field is better off the tee than Mitchell.

While I wouldn’t call him an elite iron player, he is certainly trending upward with his approach game. Over the last 18 months, he’s 104th in this field on approach. Over the last 10 months, he’s 87th. In 2022, he’s 46th. He has excellent proximity numbers from 200+ yards and you will see a lot of approach shots hit from that distance this week. He has finished T13 or better in six of his last nine starts on TOUR and finished T26 at this event last year.

The best number on Mitchell is at BetMGM as of Tuesday.

Jhonattan Vegas — Top 10 (+500)

Landon Silinsky: Vegas is having himself a great season and has really taken a leap to become one of the more consistent players on TOUR. He’s finished inside the top 27 in each of his past four starts and is coming off a T15 at the Wells Fargo, where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

On the season, Vegas ranks 21st in par-5 scoring and ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds. He always plays well in the Lone Star State, having played his college golf at the University of Texas. Vegas finished T9 here a year ago and at +500 I will take my chances he can post a repeat performance this week.

Joaquin Niemann +3500

Bryan Berryman: With fairly straight forward tee shots and little to no trouble surrounding the greens; TPC Craig Ranch should yield birdies in bunches this week. Last year the winning score was 25-under par, and I’m expecting a similar result this year.

I’m targeting elite ball-strikers that have a high birdie or better percentage for my card this week, and Niemann fits the bill.

Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in birdie-or-better percentage in this field. The bentgrass greens of TPC Craig Ranch will also work in Niemann’s favor this week, as it is the only surface he has gained strokes putting on over his 103 starts on tour.

Since turning professional in 2018, he’s proven to be a world class ball-striker who can really fill it up when he gets going. I like his chances of being at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening.

#Staffs #Bets #ATT #Byron #Nelson

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