Perry's PGA Championship Betting Card: Fitzpatrick & 3 More Outright Picks

Perry’s PGA Championship Betting Card: Fitzpatrick & 3 More Outright Picks

Click arrow to expand 2022 PGA Championship odds via WynnBet

2022 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +900
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Rory McIlroy +1400
Justin Thomas +1400
Jordan Spieth +1500
Collin Morikawa +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Cameron Smith +2200
Dustin Johnson +2200
Viktor Hovland +2800
Will Zalatoris +3300
Brooks Koepka +3500
Shane Lowry +3500
Sam Burns +4000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Max Homa +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Seamus Power +5000
Cameron Champ +5000
Erik van Rooyen +5000
Tony Finau +5500
Cameron Young +6000
Aaron Wise +6000
Sebastian Munoz +6000
Daniel Berger +6300
Jason Kokrak +7500
Corey Conners +8000
Louis Oosthuizen +8100
Tyrrell Hatton +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +10000
Jason Day +10000
Tommy Fleetwood +10000
Tiger Woods +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Mito Pereira +10000
Talor Gooch +11000
Adam Scott +11500
Abraham Ancer +12500
Billy Horschel +12500
Keegan Bradley +12500
Matthew Wolff +13000
Webb Simpson +14000
Patrick Reed +14000
Si Woo Kim +15000
Harold Varner III +15000
Gary Woodland +15500
Marc Leishman +15500
Justin Rose +16000
Sergio Garcia +17500
Brian Harman +17500
Thomas Pieters +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Luke List +20000
Tom Hoge +20000
Bernd Wiesberger +20000
Carlos Ortiz +20000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +20000
Henrik Stenson +20000
Ian Poulter +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Kevin Na +20000
Rickie Fowler +20000
Robert MacIntyre +20000
Bubba Watson +22500
Anirban Lahiri +25000
Jhonattan Vegas +25000
Keith Mitchell +25000
Lucas Herbert +25000
Patton Kizzire +25000
Richard Bland +25000
Sepp Straka +25000
Cameron Davis +25000
Cameron Tringale +25000
Kevin Streelman +25000
Lanto Griffin +25000
Sam Horsfield +25000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Kevin Kisner +30000
Branden Grace +30000
Joel Dahmen +30000
Russell Knox +30000
Adam Hadwin +30000
Adri Arnaus +30000
Bio Kim +30000
J.J. Spaun +30000
Joohyung Kim +30000
Min Woo Lee +30000
Rikuya Hoshino +30000
Chris Kirk +30000
Francesco Molinari +30000
Garrick Higgo +30000
Martin Kaymer +30000
Matt Jones +30000
Matt Kuchar +30000
Dean Burmester +35000
Harry Higgs +35000
Kyoung Hoon Lee +35000
Lee Westwood +35000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Ryan Palmer +35000
Troy Merritt +40000
Stewart Cink +40000
Beau Hossler +50000
Hudson Swafford +50000
Justin Harding +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Nicolai Hojgaard +50000
Oliver Bekker +50000
Pablo Larrazabal +50000
Ryan Fox +50000
Scott Stallings +50000
Yuki Inamori +50000
Zach Johnson +50000
Adam Schenk +60000
Chad Ramey +60000
Ryosuke Kinoshita +60000
Takumi Kanaya +60000
Jinichiro Kozuma +70000
Laurie Canter +70000
Lucas Glover +70000
Daniel van Tonder +100000
Jason Dufner +100000
Ryan Brehm +100000
Sadom Kaewkanjana +100000
Shaun Norris +100000
Alex Cejka +200000
Chan Kim +200000
Alex Beach +500000
Austin Hurt +500000
Brandon Bingaman +500000
Casey Pyne +500000
Colin Inglis +500000
Dylan Newman +500000
Jared Jones +500000
Jesse Mueller +500000
John Daly +500000
Kyle Mendoza +500000
Matthew Borchert +500000
Michael Block +500000
Nic Ishee +500000
Paul Dickinson +500000
Rich Beem +500000
Ryan Vermeer +500000
Sean McCarty +500000
Shaun Micheel +500000
Shawn Warren +500000
Tim Feenstra +500000
Tyler Collet +500000

Not much to report from the Bryon Nelson. All the bets made the cut, but none were ever in contention. Davis Riley gave a brief glimpse of hope that he might backdoor a top five, but cooled off on the back nine and finished 9th.

Now we’re on to the second major of the season with Southern Hills set to host the PGA Championship.

It’s the first time we’ve seen the PGA at this venue in 15 years. The last time it was here Tiger Woods held off Woody Austin and Ernie Els to capture the title.

The Course

Southern Hills is set to play 7,556 yards for a par 70, about 400 yards longer than when Woods won in 2007.

We’ll see water play a factor on 15 holes, so precision both off the tee and with the irons will be key. Length, as always, will be an edge, but much of that advantage will come into play on the par 5s. Both are set to play well over 600 yards, limiting the amount of players who will legitimately be able to reach in two. The par 4s are fairly short by recent major championship standards with seven set to play under 450 yards and just one was over 500 yards on the initial scorecard.

The weather, mainly the wind, could come into play with gusts above 20 mph fairly common. Early forecasts have late Thursday and early Friday potentially catching the worst of it, but we all know how the weather can fluctuate during the week.

The Favorites

At the top, we have Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who opened between +1000 and +1200 at various sportsbooks. Scheffler has four wins in the past three months, while Rahm finally got on the board this season in his last start in Mexico.

In that +1400 to +1800 range, we see Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Spieth will be popular in this range. He’s got the win at Harbour Town and was second at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so the form is there. McIlroy was second at Augusta and followed that up two weeks ago with a fifth-place finish at the Wells Fargo.

However, of that group, this may set up best for Morikawa. He was fifth at Augusta and gained seven shots on approach at Harbour Town. If this ends up playing a little tighter because of the rough, creek and wind, he’s the elite guy who would fare best in my eyes.

In the +2000s, we have Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland will be popular after playing college golf in Oklahoma, but with plenty of run off areas around the greens, we’ll see how the short game holds up for him. Schauffele and Cantlay got the win in Zurich and Schauffele followed that up with a hot weekend to finish inside the top 5 at the Byron Nelson.

We haven’t seen Smith in a few weeks since the Zurich, and he hasn’t popped up on the leaderboards since Augusta. However, he and Scheffler are already on this week’s betting card, along with Shane Lowry, at much larger numbers. I wouldn’t recommend them at the current prices.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll open here with Max Homa at +8000 on DraftKings. He was added to my card at +9000 when he got into contention at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here. The ball striking has been dialed in for a few months now. He gained 10 strokes in his win two weeks ago. He’s got five other finishes inside the top 20 in 2022 and picked up a win during the fall, as well.

With three victories now in the past 15 months, Homa is becoming one of the better players in the game when he gets near the top of the leaderboard. We haven’t seen him do it yet in a field of this caliber, but he’s won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. That shows that Homa is capable of getting it done at these kinds of venues.

We’ll also go to Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500. He’s been playing well all season, finishing inside the top 20 in seven on his nine starts in 2022. The better form has been tied to better ball striking. He continues to gain ground off the tee and with approach. Both of those areas used to be slightly above average for him and he would ride his short game. His short game is still solid, but now he ranks inside the top 25 in all four strokes gained categories. He’s become a more well-rounded player and that’s led to strong results.

The Longshots

I’ve got two names here, but let’s start with Keegan Bradley at +12500 on WynnBet. Anywhere that needs a complete tee-to-green game and where the winning score is likely to land around 10-under, Bradley can be a factor. He’s finished 11th or better in five of his past seven starts, so the form is there. The reason it’s been better is an uptick in the short game. He gains strokes around the green nearly every week now and has been above average with the putter in three of his past five starts.

I’m also going to Davis Riley at 200-1 on WynnBet. This is probably more of a top-20 play, but his form is really good. He was ninth last week and has placed inside the top 10 in four of his past six starts. He’s been riding a hot short game in many of those results, but at the Byron Nelson he was able to gain ground in all four categories — a promising sign for the rookie who has locked up a tour card for next season.

It doesn’t take much of anything for me to bet Riley, but like last week, I think this could be a spot where he plays better than the odds suggest.

With my bets in the months leading up to this event, that pretty much wraps up the outrights for the week. From here, we’ll focus on props when they become available and see if anything else catches our eye.

The PGA Championship Card

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500 (.66 units)
  • Max Homa +8000 (.5 units)
  • Keegan Bradley +12500 (.3 units)
  • Davis Riley +20000 (.1 units)

Total Stake: 1.56 units

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