Click arrow to expand 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge odds via BetMGM
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds
|Harold Varner III||+5000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+10000|
|Min Woo Lee||+15000|
Another major is in the books, and this time, it was another Matt Fitzpatrick experience, where he was in the picture but never really felt like he would play a part in the outcome.
Instead, it looked like a battle of the Korn Ferry Tour kids, but much like the events on that tour, chaos broke out over the final few holes. Justin Thomas capitalized on the inexperience of his competition to win a second major.
Now we move on from Southern Hills to another Perry Maxwell design at Colonial for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Usually the week following a grueling major is a chance to fade the top names who had to grind through a four-day slog; however, there’s a decent chance the form will carry over going to a course by the same designer.
Colonial has played host to the event since 1946. It’s a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. If the wind picks up, it can play fairly difficult. If it’s calm, we’ll probably see a winner near 20-under par.
This has never really been a bomber’s course. Jason Kokrak enters as the defending champ. Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth have wins on their resume here, as well.
Colonial usually is more of a precision course, where guys can find the fairway and let their irons and short game go work.
Thomas and Scottie Scheffler open at the top between +1000 and +1200, depending on where you look.
Of the two, Thomas would probably be the better fit to play well given his edge with the irons, but it would come down to how much of a hangover he’s suffering from the PGA Championship.
Last week, Scheffler was poor driving the ball and had bad luck with the weather. The irons were in good shape, though. However, in two starts, he hasn’t finished better than 55th here.
Spieth is next in line at around +1400, and he should probably be the favorite given his track record here — he has a win and three 2nd-place finishes. Combine that with his recent form — he has a win at Harbour Town and finished runner-up at the Byron Nelson — and he’s the most likely threat at the top of the board to actually win this week.
Collin Morikawa is right behind Spieth at +1600. He’s another good fit here and lost in a playoff two years ago. He was another weather draw casualty last week, making the cut but never really digging out of his hole.
He’s been off quite a bit with his short game lately, and his ball striking numbers, while solid, haven’t been able to overcome that weakness in recent weeks.
Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris and Max Homa make up the +2000s range.
Zalatoris will be popular after a runner-up finish to Thomas at the PGA.
Homa has been on a good run, but hasn’t really shown up well here, missing cuts in two of three starts.
Hovland doesn’t appear to be the best fit for this course, since it has negated the importance of distance in the past and puts an added emphasis on scrambling with its small greens.
We’ll start here with Tony Finau at +4100 at FanDuel. Finau has not been his usual consistent self this season, but there have been signs of improvement overall.
Finau gained strokes across the board last week at the PGA. It was the first time he accomplished that since his win at the Northern Trust last year. He also shown glimpses of elite ball striking. He gained six strokes off the tee at the Wells Fargo a couple weeks ago and in Mexico, he gained eight strokes with his irons on his way to a second-place finish.
This has also been a spot where Finau has played well. He was runner-up to Kevin Na in 2019 and has made the cut in all six starts, with no result worse than 34th.
I’ll back Davis Riley again at +5000 at DraftKings. He’ll probably be popular again this week after gaining 11 strokes via ball striking in his PGA Championship debut (13th).
The Texas courses have been good to him so far in his rookie year, as well. He’s locked up tour status for next season with a run of four straight top-15s to go with the Valspar runner-up early in the year.
The only thing really left for him to do now is get a win. I’m usually betting him most weeks anyway, and won’t stop now since he’s in this kind of form.
We’ll also go with Sebastian Munoz at +6000. Munoz was third here a year ago and third two weeks ago at the Byron Nelson. He can play well here and has been playing well recently. He’s made the cut in every start for four month now, last missing one at the AmEx in late January.
Munoz has also gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight events. His putter can run hot and cold but prior to the PGA Championship, he seemed to get things figured out on the greens
I’ll also go to Justin Rose here at +6500. Rose is a past champion here in 2018 and has been inside the top 20 in three of his four starts. He’s also coming off of a good week at the PGA, where he finished 13th and gained five strokes with the irons.
This is a course that has catered more to veterans in the past, so if he can carry that form from from last week into Colonial, he could contend here again.
This hasn’t really been a spot for unknown winners. It’s usually been veterans in the mid-tier or established stars (at the time) taking home the title.
My one play down from this range will be Lucas Glover at 160-1 on FanDuel. Glover had a great week with the irons at Southern Hills, gaining nearly eight strokes to finish 23rd.
He’s also finished inside the top 25 in his last two starts here, including 8th last year. He gained nearly 10 strokes combined during those tournaments, so it’s a course that fits his eye with the irons in recent years.
The Colonial Card
- Tony Finau +4100 (.82 units)
- Davis Riley +5000 (.66 units)
- Sebastian Munoz +6000 (.55 units)
- Justin Rose +6500 (.5 units)
- Lucas Glover +16000 (.21 units)
Total Stake: 2.74 units
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