Charles Schwab Challenge: Spieth, Berger Among Vincenzi's 5 Course-Fit Picks

Charles Schwab Challenge: Spieth, Berger Among Vincenzi’s 5 Course-Fit Picks

Click arrow to expand 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge odds via BetMGM

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

name Odds
Justin Thomas +1100
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Jordan Spieth +1400
Collin Morikawa +1800
Viktor Hovland +2000
Will Zalatoris +2000
Sam Burns +2500
Max Homa +2800
Abraham Ancer +3300
Daniel Berger +3300
Jason Kokrak +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Chris Kirk +4000
Davis Riley +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Mito Pereira +4000
Talor Gooch +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Webb Simpson +4000
Billy Horschel +5000
Brian Harman +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Harold Varner III +5000
Kevin Na +5000
Sebastian Munoz +5000
C.T. Pan +6600
Maverick McNealy +6600
Patrick Reed +6600
Ryan Palmer +6600
Tom Hoge +6600
Adam Long +8000
Bryson DeChambeau +8000
Cameron Tringale +8000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000
K.H. Lee +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Troy Merritt +8000
David Lipsky +8000
Doug Ghim +8000
Alex Smalley +10000
Cam Davis +10000
Erik van Rooyen +10000
J.J. Spaun +10000
J.T. Poston +10000
Joel Dahmen +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Lucas Herbert +10000
Matthew NeSmith +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
Russell Knox +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Aaron Rai +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Emiliano Grillo +12500
Ian Poulter +12500
James Hahn +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Nate Lashley +12500
Patrick Rodgers +12500
Austin Smotherman +15000
Brandon Wu +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Mark Hubbard +15000
Min Woo Lee +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Peter Malnati +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Vince Whaley +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Chad Ramey +20000
Chez Reavie +20000
Matt Jones +20000
Matthias Schwab +20000
Nick Taylor +20000
Sahith Theegala +20000
Wyndham Clark +20000
Adam Schenk +25000
Beau Hossler +25000
Danny Lee +25000
Michael Thompson +25000
Richard Bland +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Zach Johnson +25000
Adam Svensson +30000
Andrew Putnam +30000
Brandt Snedeker +30000
Charley Hoffman +30000
Doc Redman +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Kramer Hickok +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Luke Donald +30000
Paul Barjon +30000
Sam Ryder +30000
Brian Stuard +35000
Garrick Higgo +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Bill Haas +50000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Hayden Buckley +50000
John Pak +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Erik Compton +50000
James Piot +50000
T. Strafaci +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Ty Strafaci +50000

After an exciting 2022 PGA Championship, the TOUR heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par 70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week could be influenced by course setup or wind. It can play relatively easy or relatively difficult depending on pin locations and firmness of the greens, but the last three seasons have all produced winners with scores between -13 and -15.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational that will host 121 golfers this week, and the field is very strong despite it being the week after a major championship.

Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Abraham Ancer, Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns and Tony Finau.

Past Winners at Charles Schwab Challenge

  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
  • 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
  • 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
  • 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
  • 2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
  • 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

5 Key Stats For Colonial Country Club

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.

Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Will Zalatoris (+26.8) (+2000)
  2. Viktor Hovland (26.4) (+2000)
  3. Jordan Spieth (+26.3) (+1200)
  4. Justin Thomas (+24.6) (+800)
  5. Scottie Scheffler (+21.0) (+1000)

2. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but last year, we saw a lot of the players in the star-studded field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers.

The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Max Homa (+17.5) (+2500) 
  2. Mito Pereira (+16.6) (+5000)
  3. Sebastian Munoz (+16.3) (+6000)
  4. Brian Harman (+15.8) (+6500)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+15.4) (+2000)

3. Par 4: 400-450

With seven par 4s on the course that are between 400 and 450 yards, I am targeting golfers who excel on these types of holes. With only two par 5s on the course, par 4 scoring will be even more important.

Par 4: 400-450 Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Justin Rose (+13.8) (+6500)
  2. Mito Pereira (+13.2) (+5000)
  3. Kevin Streelman (+13.1) (+10000)
  4. Scottie Scheffler (+12.4) (+1000)
  5. Justin Thomas (+12.2) (+15000)

4. Course History

Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.

Course History Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+63.6) (+1200)
  2. Kevin Na (+40.1) (+3500)
  3. Justin Rose (+33.7) (+6500)
  4. Tony Finau (+33.6) (+4000)
  5. Brian Harman (+33.3) (+6500)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Beau Hossler (+24.7) (+25000)
  2. Troy Merritt (+23.1) (+5000)
  3. Zach Johnson (+22.4) (+30000)
  4. Brandt Snedeker(+17.1) (+25000)
  5. Ian Poulter (+17.4) (+10000)

The Charles Schwab Challenge Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (22%), Par 4: 400-450 (17%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (17%).

Note: Jason Kokrak was second in the model last year and won the event at +4500.

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1200)
  2. Tony Finau (+4000)
  3. Justin Thomas (+800)
  4. Daniel Berger (+3500)
  5. Brian Harman (+6500)
  6. Mito Pereira (+5000)
  7. Viktor Hovland (+2000)
  8. Collin Morikawa (+1200)
  9. Chris Kirk (+6000)
  10. C.T. Pan (+10000)

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Jordan Spieth (+1500) (FanDuel)

Spieth was my headline bet at the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, and although he didn’t get it done in the end, he did nothing to dissuade me from believing that a Texas win is imminent.

Course history has proven to be extremely important at Colonial, and there is no one better at the course (or even close) than Spieth. In his past six trips to Fort Worth, he has six Top-10 finishes, including a win and three runners-up. His form overall in the state of Texas is nothing short of immaculate.

Spieth’s performance at the PGA Championship wasn’t his best showing, but statistically, he continued his strong ball striking. He gained 8.6 strokes from tee to green, including a solid 4.7 strokes on approach.

He’s still struggling on the greens, as he lost 3.2 strokes on the field with the putter.

In his past four starts at Colonial Country Club, Spieth has gained 7.1 (2021), 8.6 (2020) and 7.5 (2019). If there were ever a place that the 28-year-old can find his putting stroke, it’s here.

Daniel Berger (+3500) (bet365)

Berger is as predictable as it gets in regards to which courses fit his skill set. Shorter, Par-70 tracks — where accuracy is at a premium — have always suited the 29-year-old. He’s a fantastic iron player, but tends to struggle on long and difficult courses, which is why it’s no surprise that he didn’t do well in last week’s PGA Championship.

Colonial Country Club is an excellent fit for Berger’s game. The small greens give him an advantage over the field due to his accuracy on approach. He edged out Collin Morikawa — who also is one of the most accurate iron players on TOUR — here in a playoff in 2020.

Despite his poor showing last week, he still ranks in the top-10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Last week’s statistics may be a bit unfair, as well, as Berger was caught in the difficult AM/PM draw.

It’s certainly arguable whether or not Berger is in the best of form right now, but it feels as though we are getting a discounted price this week, making it worth the risk.

Webb Simpson +4000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough year for Simpson. Last week’s 20th-place finish at the PGA Championship was his first Top-20 finish of 2022. He’s missed plenty of events due to injury, but the six starts he had between Top-20 finishes was one of the longest stretches of poor form of his career.

Despite the brutal season, there seems to be some reason for optimism. Simpson gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and putting at Southern Hills. That was the first time the 36-year-old has gained strokes in all four of those categories in an event since February of 2021.

Webb is also a strong course fit for Colonial, and has two Top-5 finishes here in his past four trips.

It was encouraging to see Simpson turn in such a well-rounded performance on a course that would typically be difficult for him due to its length. The fact that he hung around all week tells me he’s finally starting to round into form. His strong play could he attributed to his recent iron switch. He gained 2.6 strokes on approach, which is his best performance of the season thus far. When speaking about the switch, Webb made some encouraging comments.

“ I haven’t been hitting my irons great. Approach to the green is typically a strength for me; this year it’s been a weakness, and I’ve struggled out of the rough. I keep getting told that these the irons I’m playing are better out of the rough, better with distance control, better with mis-hits, and so I guess I was being stubborn but finally listened and I really like them.”

If he’s back, this is a small price to pay for the win equity the seven-time PGA TOUR winner possesses.

Justin Rose +6600 (bet365)

Rose came out of nowhere last week to finish in 13th place at the PGA Championship.

The timing of his game starting to come around couldn’t be at a better spot in the schedule, as Colonial is a course that “Rosie” has been sensational at throughout his career. The Englishman won the event in 2018 and finished in 3rd in 2020.

Rose’s statistics were perhaps even more impressive than his result last week. He gained over five strokes on approach at Southern Hills, which is something he’s done only one other time since August of 2020.

He also gained 4.2 strokes putting and is one of the best Bentgrass putters in the field.

His combination of strong iron play and putting make Colonial an ideal fit.

I believe Rose has another PGA TOUR win in him, and this event is one of the most likely spots for him to get it done.

C.T. Pan +10000 (bet365)

Before withdrawing from the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago with an illness, C.T. Pan was playing some great golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in his past seven starts and has gained strokes from tee to green in his past eight starts.

The bronze medalist can’t contend on every course on TOUR, but he’s one of the better players if the course is short enough. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 13th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on par 70s that are under 7,200 yards.

Pan finished in 3rd place here in 2019 and was the only player in the Top 5 to shoot all four rounds in the 60s (68-67-68-69). His recent run of consistency paired with his quintessential course fit make him an ideal triple-digit target this week.

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