All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Game 7
Home sweet Miami: There have been 145 Game 7s in the NBA playoffs, and home teams have won 76.5% of them. The Heat are 7-2 at home in the postseason, losing Games 2 and 5 after starting the postseason 7-0 at home. Miami is 6-4 all time in Game 7s. Under coach Erik Spoelstra, it’s 4-2, including a perfect 4-0 at home. Across the previous six Game 7s Spoelstra has coached, the Heat have a plus-6.0 point-per-game differential.
Jimmy Buckets: Jimmy Butler led the offensive attack for Miami in a resurgent performance on Friday that saw him score more points in Game 6 alone than in Games 3, 4, and 5 combined (47 vs 27). Butler finished with 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals, one of the finer efforts while facing elimination in Heat and NBA history. Butler’s 47 points are the most by a Heat player when facing elimination, and coincidentally, the top three performances in Heat history have now all come against the Celtics.
Been there, done that: When it comes to Game 7s, the Celtics are experienced. They’ve played, and won, more Game 7s than any other franchise. The Celtics are 25-9 all time in Game 7s, and their .735 win percentage in Game 7s is best among franchises with at least two games played. They’re 4-4 in Game 7s played on the road.
— ESPN Stats & Information
Breaking down Game 7
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
8:30 p.m ET, FTX Arena, Miami
Line: Celtics (-2.5)
Money line: Celtics (-140), Heat (+120)
Total: 195.5 points
BPI win%: Heat (51.3%)
Questionable: Marcus Smart (ankle), Tyler Herro (groin), Robert Williams III (knee), Max Strus (hamstring), Gabe Vincent (hamstring)
Ruled out: None
Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play.
Notable: The total of 195.5 is the lowest in any game this season (first game below 200) and the lowest in any playoff game since 2018.
Notable: The Heat are just the third team to be a home underdog in a Game 7 in the past 30 seasons (excluding the 2020 bubble). The previous two went 1-1 outright and ATS. – ESPN Stats & Information
Best bet: Celtics -2.5, over 195.5. The Heat surprised the world with an unbelievable performance in Game 6 to win back home court and momentum heading into Game 7 on Sunday night. I don’t expect Jimmy Butler to have another 47-point performance, which was needed for the Heat to win by eight points. Let’s marinate in that for a minute. I believe the Celtics underestimated an injury-riddled Heat team that was on the road. Game 6 was a wake-up call, and Boston typically follows a loss with a win. Al Horford had an off night (going 1-for 6-from deep), Smart was 1-for-9 from deep, Jayson Tatum had seven turnovers, Jaylen Brown had four turnovers — and I don’t expect to see that again. I am also playing the over here, where this total is WAY too low, considering the over has hit four of the six games. I respect the defense, but there is way too much firepower on this court. – Anita Marks
Best bet: Brown over 24.5 points. The Celtics need Brown to step up. In Game 6, he scored 20 points, but two came in the second half. I don’t expect that to be the case Sunday night. Brown insisted after Game 6 that the Celtics would get their act together in Game 7. He’s averaged 23 PPG in the 2022 playoffs. In Game 7, Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the Celtics in scoring. – Eric Moody
Best bet: Over 195.5. I was hammering the over to start the series because despite how excellent both defenses are, these two teams typically score well on each other. Going into Game 4, they had scored at least 204 combined points in five straight games (going back to the regular season), with an average score of 216.8 PPG. Then, in Games 4 and 5, the Heat had several injuries, which led to them producing two historically inept scoring games and therefore two unders. But with the Heat looking healthy in Game 6, the score came back to normal, and the teams combined for a more typical 214 points. While Game 7s are often defensive affairs, if the teams are healthy, they should go over 195.5. –– Andre Snellings
Best bet: Tatum over 41.5 total points + assists + rebounds. This game is late in the series, which typically means that Tatum is about to put a big number on the board. In the last four games of the Bucks-Celtics series, Tatum averaged 33.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 5.3 APG, going over 41.5 PAR three times. In the past three games of this series, Tatum has averaged 27.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 6.0 APG, and gone over 41.5 PAR all three times. If he’s healthy, I look for Tatum to go big in Game 7. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Butler over 40.5 total points + assists + rebounds. Butler overs have been some of the best bets in the playoffs so far. The only exception was when his knee was getting the better of him from Games 3-5. But, he bounced back in a big way in Game 6, and I can’t imagine we’ll see anything less than super-Butler in this crucial Game 7 as he tries to will the Heat back to the Finals. — Andre Snellings
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